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Sometimes a chart is all you need

Two Americas

Submitted by Roanman on Thu, 02/25/2010 - 06:58

 

The two charts and excepts below link to a brief report from Josh Barro of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research titled,

Two Americas: Public Sector Gains in Recession

 

 

The problem:  During the recession, public employees have continued to see strong wage growth, well ahead of the private sector.

From the first quarter of 2007 through the last quarter of 2009, the average value of hourly compensation (wages plus benefits) rose by 9.8 percent for employees of state and local governments, compared to 6.9 percent in the private sector.[2]

After adjusting for inflation, public employees have seen a rise in real hourly income over this period, while private employees have not. 

What should be done? 

The trend in the third quarter—when public-employee compensation was flat—shows that a freeze on public-employee compensation is possible.

States and localities should take the following steps to get employee compensation under control:

Governments should freeze employee compensation at least until public-employee wages have returned to levels matching the private sector trend.

They should take this action when negotiating new public-employee contracts.

In some states, governments may have powers to freeze pay even in the middle of an existing contract.

States should also look at reforming binding arbitration laws that force governments to pay unaffordable wage increases.

Such laws should be repealed or reformed to properly take into account private-sector wage trends and the ability of governments to pay wage increases.

Unfortunately, the trend reverted to form in the fourth quarter, with public-employee compensation again rising faster than private sector pay.

Getting budgets under control will require state and local lawmakers to put taxpayer interests ahead of the interests of public-employee unions.

 

 

The Bradley Model revisited

Submitted by Roanman on Sun, 02/21/2010 - 12:32

 

OK, here's the Bradley Model for the years 2008-10 from Manfred Zimmel.

All of the Bradley Model charts link to his site aminita.at.

I don't as of yet have much experience with aminita.at.

They aren't cheap.

I am.

So far it's been an emotional back and forth.

I downloaded their 2009 report after it went free. It was pretty right on.

As was my friend Richard Nolle at astropro.com

The second chart is that of the S&P 500 for 2008.

You will notice that the 2008 Bradley chart catches both the June turning point and the September dive of all things financial.

 

 

The 2009 hit pretty close the February turning point, then caught the turn, but flat out missed the accelerating upward drive from July through the end of the year.

Which brings me to the caveat in bright red ink stamped right there on the chart.

The Bradley predicts turning points ONLY and not the polarity, i.e. a high in the chart may also be a low, and vice versa.

I don't like that. C'mon, grow a pair!!!

 

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I do the same thing for each chart, on one I get a frame, the other no.  Makes me nutsl!!!

The reason I bring all this up?

Another test for "The Bradley" occurs March 1, 2010 through August 10, 2010

 

 

Now you're warned.

As for me, I'm gonna enjoy life over here on the sidelines.

 

OK, OK I'll admit it.

I'm short a little.

Seems prudent. 

 

The Bradley Model

Submitted by Roanman on Mon, 02/15/2010 - 06:37

 

The Bradley Model is a chart constructed on a set of astrological parameters defined by Donald A. Bradley in his famed 1948 book, Stock Market Prediction (The Planetary Barometer and How to Use it).

The foreward, by Llewellyn George begins as follows:

"Although this text is not primarily intended to be a stock market forecaster, yet by judicious operators it is quite likely to become their most valued treasure for anticipating trends and changes which are due to mass mind activity.

It tells how to properly chart that psychological activity in compliance with well known planetary forces."

OK, now I understand fully that your first inclination here will be to laugh like hell, and go to chaneling Festus, who once famously said to the apostle Paul, "You are beside yourself!  Much learning is driving you mad!"

Especially those of you who insist on picking up the telephone in order to offer a personal harangue over any mostly innocent notion I may have that doesn't correspond perfectly with your own personal world view.

YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE !!!

Before you go there however, consider this.

If you're a Christian, and I know for a fact that a mess of you are.

On the fourth day, God himself said, and I'm quoting here,

"Let there be lights in the firmament of the heavens to divide the day from the night; and let them be for signs and seasons, and for days and years."

The word Lunacy is derived from the same root as the word Lunar, Luna the Roman moon goddess. This relationship extends to other languages, most notably Welsh where these two words are lloer and lloerig.

Regardless of you spiritual inclination, anecdotal evidence persists regarding police department and emergency rooms ramping up during full moons, although there is almost no scientific or statistical evidence of any correlation between the full moon and increased crime, emergency room visits, births or anything else.  

Almost without exception, every study that has been able to demonstrate any correlation between the full moon and any studied event has been subsequently debunked.  What's most interesting here is that the debunkers almost universally believe in "Global Warming" (Just Kidding)

The Chart below is that for the "Bradley Model" calculated from about 1840 through about 2040.

It is simply charting the sum (positive or negative, zero is down the middle) of a set of mathematical values Bradley attached to the angles of relationship between the Sun, the Moon, and the planets that make up our solar system.

Planets in relationship of or near 0, 60, 90, 120 and 180 degrees were considered and a value (again positive or negative) was assigned each.

The positive or negative values were assigned on the basis of the historic consensus having to do with the benefic, or malefic qualities of each planet within each angular relationship between the planets.

Got that?

Don't worry about it.  Here's all you gotta know.

Just look at the chart, up is good, down is bad.

 

 

 

It catches the "The Panic of 1873", which began "The Long Depression" which according to the National Bureau of Economic Research lasted until March 1979, a total of 65 months and longer by nearly a year and a half than "The Great Depression"

Take note of the extremely low, low point that so nicely corresponds with the "Crash of 29" stock market descent that extended from 9/3/29 until about 7/32, and the mostly continuous lows during "The Great Depression".

It catches "The Panic of 1910", the "Black Monday" crash of October 19, 1987.

And, how bout that big fat high point sitting over the middle to late 1990's.

Now, let's consider the summer of 2010.

Whoa!!!

DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER!!!

(The above was a time continuum joke)

Your Uncle Roany is in Cash (Mostly Canadian) and Gold!!!

I'm just sayin.

 

 

If ..... And ..... Then

Submitted by Roanman on Wed, 01/20/2010 - 11:16

Sometimes A Chart Is All You Need

Submitted by Roanman on Tue, 01/05/2010 - 15:05

 

The first two charts are from articles written in 2008.

Click the chart, go to the article. 

This one is pretty simple, if the dow is at 10400 and gold is at 1120, the ratio is 10,400/1120= 9.2875

We've had highs around 42, and lows near 1.

 

 

 

This one is short and sweet, if you're short on time, click below.

 

There are quite a few sites referencing this chart with everything from embedded interviews with Professor Shiller who developed the chart to third party analyses.

I link my favorite here because the writer uses the phrase "Congressional Moron" repeatedly

 

 

  

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