Money

"Nearly everybody I read or talk to is convinced that we're in a new bull market -- a primary bull market which they claim started at the March 2009 low.

If the March 2009 was a bear market low, it was unlike any bear market low that I have ever seen.

Where were the "great values" that always present themselves at a bear market bottom?

Where were the juicy Dow dividend yields that we invariably see at true bear market bottoms.

For instance, back in 1981 the Dow dividend yield was 6.42%.

At the bear market low of 1974 the Dow dividend yield was 6.12%.

In 1940 the Dow dividend was 6.84%.

In the dark year 1931, the Dow dividend yield was 10.78%

Where were the fabulous values in March 2009?

The answer, March 2009 was not a true bear market bottom.

The next great bear market low lies ahead!"

As far as I'm concerned, Peggy Noonan is one of the finest writers in America.

I make my son read her editorials in the Wall Street Journal (he hates it) ... (I don't care).

Here's her analysis of what went wrong with the mortgage market.

Click anywhere below to get the entire piece.

You, for political reasons, both Republicans and Democrats, finagled the mortgage system so that people who make, like, zero dollars a year were given mortgages for $600,000 houses.

You got to run around and crow about how under your watch everyone became a homeowner.

You shook down the taxpayer and hoped for the best. 

"Democrats did it because they thought it would make everyone Democrats:

'Look what I give you!'

Republicans did it because they thought it would make everyone Republicans:

'I'm a homeowner, I've got a stake, don't raise my property taxes, get off my lawn!'

And Wall Street?

We went to town, baby.

We bundled the mortgages and sold them to fools, or we held them, called them assets, and made believe everyone would pay their mortgage.

As if we cared.

We invented financial instruments so complicated no one, even the people who sold them, understood what they were.

"You're finaglers and we're finaglers.

I play for dollars, you play for votes.

In our own ways we're all thieves.

We would be called desperadoes if we weren't so boring, so utterly banal in our soft-jawed, full-jowled selfishness.

If there were any justice, we'd be forced to duel, with the peasants of America holding our cloaks.

Only we'd both make sure we missed, wouldn't we?"

I think that just about covers it.

The Canadian Dollar has again achieved achieved parity with the US Dollar.

Closing at $1 Tuesday 4/6/2010.

Four different services hit my mailbox last night with the same headline.

Ten Year Treasury Hits 4%

Putting aside the notion that a 4% yield over the next 10 years lent to anybody (let alone the Federal Government of the United States of America) even approaches a reasonable compensation for risk.

The much referenced "Head and Shoulder" Top is in.

My preference would be for it to go back up and close that gap between about 118.3 and 117.5 and then finish.

As a matter of fact, I believe it will, only because I have come to the conclusion that the notion of randomness in the world is a deception.

I have come to believe that the world is just about as anal and rhythmic as I am (which is pretty damn).

I also believe that the Fed will use every lever to hold rates down.

I'm just not sure it's gonna work.

Savers may not be gasping for income that much longer.

Oh yeah, and P.S.

Did you make that refi application yet?

Here's Richard Russell, publisher of the Dow Theory Letters, with yet another take on the Bond Market.

He offers this chart on the 30-Year Treasury Bond with the following comments,

"I've been keeping an eagle eye on the daily chart of the 30-year Treasury bond. As of yesterday, the "long bond" had sunk exactly to its support at around 114. If support breaks, interest rates will be heading dangerously higher. The chart shows a double top (first two red arrows). Then a break to the downside and a formation showing a triple top (second set of three red arrows). As of yesterday's close, the 30-year T-bond was sitting exactly on critical support. If bonds are down today, it won't be pretty.

Friday Alan Greenspan called higher Treasury rates "the canary in the mine" and forecast rising rates. Greenspan is almost always wrong, but this time I agree with the former "Maestro."

Might be just about time to get that 30 year fixed refi, if you're able.

Below is a "Head and Shoulders" pattern nearing completion on the Weekly T-Bond chart.

I referenced this pattern and posted one of my charts a week or so ago titled,

"A Heads Up from R.E. MacMaster"

The chart below links to his site, unfortunately, he's stingy with the free stuff, and it ain't cheap.

Recommended anyway.

James Turk founder of GoldMoney.com has created the following spreadsheet.

Mr. Turk also writes and publishes the Freemarket Gold and Money Report.

Click anywhere within the spreadsheet to link to the original article.

Recommended.

"The great virtue is consumption, extravagance, improvidence.

The great vice is saving, thrift and ‘financial prudence ...

... If there are no savings there is no private money for investment.

Without private investors the government must provide investment capital.

If the government provides for investment, it has the power to dictate the conduct and processes of those who need investment capital."

The above quote was taken from Zygmund Dobbs' book, "Keynes at Harvard"

The economic theory's of John Maynard Keynes are those that are being practiced by all of the governments presently in power throughout the entire western world and much of the east including Japan.

It came to my attention in an email blast that evidently I must subscribe to from Brian Hicks at Energy and Capital ominously titled'

"Obama Wants to Spend Your Retirement Money".

Which by the way, I believe.

If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times,

"The fact of my paranoia is in no way evidence that they're not out to get me."