Reading on a Saturday Morning

Richard Maybury publishes The Early Warning Report and Chaosistan.com

Friends have forwarded the occasional copy or link for a while now.

Membership went on sale recently so I signed up.

As yet, I have no opinion.

The quote below links to the signup page. 

“What Obama and his toadies have repeatedly demonstrated themselves to be is fascist.

Fascism is the most simple-minded of all political philosophies, it boils down to just 16 words:

Power holders should do whatever appears necessary, no exceptions, no limits, and no definition of necessary…

We have no way to know what Obama, Bernanke, Geithner or any of the other kingpins will think is necessary, so there is no way to know what they will do to the economy or investment markets.

They are all loose cannons…

Fascism has no plan, it is 100% pragmatic, a fire fighting mentality, not an agenda mentality.

Its only answer to any problem is, more government...

Let me emphasize, the government’s top people are not constrained by ideology…the comment by the Director of National Intelligence, that US officials have the right to kill — without a trial — American citizens they suspect of terrorism.

If these people will do that, they will do anything. They are already across the final line.

This is why I believe that before the Great Monetary Calamity ends, somewhere between three and ten years from now, we will see gold at $10,000, silver at $100 and platinum at $10,000...

Remember, however, that I am not saying the precious metals will rise this much, I’m saying the dollar will fall this much.”

 Richard Maybury, 04-10

Here's Richard Russell, publisher of the Dow Theory Letters, with yet another take on the Bond Market.

He offers this chart on the 30-Year Treasury Bond with the following comments,

"I've been keeping an eagle eye on the daily chart of the 30-year Treasury bond. As of yesterday, the "long bond" had sunk exactly to its support at around 114. If support breaks, interest rates will be heading dangerously higher. The chart shows a double top (first two red arrows). Then a break to the downside and a formation showing a triple top (second set of three red arrows). As of yesterday's close, the 30-year T-bond was sitting exactly on critical support. If bonds are down today, it won't be pretty.

Friday Alan Greenspan called higher Treasury rates "the canary in the mine" and forecast rising rates. Greenspan is almost always wrong, but this time I agree with the former "Maestro."

Might be just about time to get that 30 year fixed refi, if you're able.

This bit of fun is brought to you by Doctor, Senator Tom Coburn, Republican from Oklahoma.

The idea here being that since Democrats, having boxed themselves in by virtue of the tactics they employed to pass their Obamacare legislation, now were forced to go on the record in the Senate and vote against an unlimited number of Republican amendments.

Then defend that record in the fall. 

Among those amendments Democrats rejected:

No Erectile Dysfunction Drugs To Sex Offenders

(Amendment 3556)

This amendment would enact recommendations from the Government Accountability Office to stop fraudulent payments for prescription drugs prescribed by dead providers or, to dead patients. This amendment also prohibits coverage of Viagra and other ED medications to convicted child molesters, rapists, and sex offenders, and prohibits coverage of abortion drugs.

A 2005 survey found that some 800 convicted sex offenders had received Medicaid-funded impotence drugs.

Congress Should Not Lecture Americans About Fiscal Responsibility

(Amendment 3563)

This amendment would strike the creation of a new $375 million government program the new health bill (The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) intended to promote personal and financial responsibility. It is ironic that Congress, that amassed a $12 trillion deficit, should lecture Americans about financial responsibility. This government “responsibility” program duplicates existing government programs and adds hundreds of millions of dollars to the tax burden funds. In short, there is nothing responsible about the new responsibility program.

If You Like the Health Plan You Have, You Can Keep It

(Amendment 3559) 

President Obama promised that Americans who like their health care plan would be able to keep it. However, the Congressional Budget Office has said that millions of people will lose their current coverage under The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Unfortunately, for many Americans, the reconciliation bill is even worse news, as it made changes to some grandfathering provisions. The changes to grandfathering provisions would mean that individuals with guaranteed renewable plans in the individual market will NOT be able to keep their current coverage at the current price, but would immediately be issued a new policy and charged more. This amendment strikes changes to grandfathered plans, so Americans who like the health care they have actually can keep it.

Implement Republican Ideas President Obama Has Endorsed To Crack Down on Waste, Fraud, and Abuse

(Amendment 3560) - 

The President’s Proposal for health reform, released on February 22, 2010, highlighted nine Republican ideas to combat waste, fraud, and abuse. This amendment includes each of those policy provisions which have been endorsed by President Obama. Certainly Washington politicians should be serious about stemming the hemorrhaging of taxpayer dollars lost to waste, fraud, and abuse. Senators will have an opportunity to vote on proposals which have received bipartisan support, and which the President has endorsed.

Abortion Conscience Amendment

(Amendment 3561) 

This amendment would ensure health care providers are not forced to participate in abortions or discriminated against because they choose not to perform abortions. The federal government should never require health care providers to violate their deeply held moral, ethical or religious beliefs or discriminate against them because they choose to exercise their consciences and not be involved with abortion. This amendment would protect health care providers from being required or coerced to perform abortions.

Exempt Class I Medical Devices from New Taxation. 

Taxing latex gloves and band-aids is not health reform and only increases the cost of health care for patients. This amendment would exempt all Class I medical devices – such as band-aids, wheelchairs, hospital beds, and surgical gowns – from new federal taxation.

Highly Qualified Bureaucrats in the Department of Education Office of Federal Student Aid

(Amendment 3649) 

As the U.S. Department of Education prepares to become one of the world’s largest banks, this amendment holds government bureaucrats to the same high standards applied to U.S. teachers by requiring each employee within the U.S. Department of Education’s Office of Federal Student Aid to become “Highly Qualified” in fiscal management.

This amendment requires each employee within the U.S. Department of Education’s Office of Federal Student Aid to become “Highly Qualified” in fiscal management by earning a bachelor’s degree in finance or business management/administration within six years of the date of enactment.

Prohibits Members of Congress from receiving a pay increase until the budget is balanced

(Amendment 3689)

This amendment freezes the pay of Members of Congress until they balance the U.S. government’s budget. Members of Congress are paid an annual salary of $174,000 and, under a law passed by Congress, that amount is automatically increased every year. This amendment would block this automatic congressional pay raise until Congress stops borrowing money to pay for its excessive spending.

For the complete list of Senator Coburn's ammendments, click below.

I could not find the complete Senate list published at any one place. 

The complete list of amendments offered and rejected by House Democrats can be found here.

It's long, but worthy of some fast scrolling.

I don't think I've ever posted two items from the same source, on the same day.

But because both of these stories have something to do with the economy here in Southeastern Michigan.

I'm posting them.

Click anywhere on the first story to get the whole story, it's long but worthwhile.

The gears link to the second story. 

Loan Squeeze Thwarts Small-Business Revival

By MARK WHITEHOUSE

YPSILANTI, Mich.—Thomas Harrison, chief executive of Michigan Ladder Co., has a plan that would contribute to the U.S. economic recovery: Expand the 108-year-old company, adding at least 20 jobs in the process. His chances of getting the loan of $300,000 or more he needs to do so, though, depend in part on what happens to folks like home builder James Haeussler.

Both are customers of the same community bank, the Bank of Ann Arbor. Mr. Haeussler is struggling to repay $8.3 million he and a partner borrowed to build a residential community in nearby Saline, Mich. In this economic environment, the bank doesn't want to take a chance on what it sees as a risky new loan to Mr. Harrison.

"In a world where Jim Haeussler makes it, Tom Harrison will make it," says Timothy Marshall, the bank's president. "But it's not prudent to do both loans at this point in time. We're in a more risk-averse mode."

Those of you who know me well, know that unless I have properly medicated myself, I don't sleep worth a damn.

You also know that I truly enjoy my medication (child of the 60's with all that implies).

Better sleep through chemistry being one of my several dozen favored mottos.

The consensus diagnosis has up until just recently always been "guilty conscience".

But a new diagnosis is emerging.

 "It's the crap you read!!!!!"

Examples follow:

It’s likely the Fed will respond with a new round of injections, sending the dollar into a death spiral, much like the present situation in Venezuela. It will be another disaster for those who aren’t ready, and more huge profits for those who are … I’m staying focused on what I believe are the two carved-in-granite long term investment trends: more war, and more debasement of the US dollar.” - Richard Maybury, Early Warning Report, 02-10 

“…the United States no longer has Israeli national security as an overriding consideration…

In the unlikely event that Iran actually does develop a weapon and does strike, Israel is the likely target…a nuclear strike would have a particularly devastating effect on Israel. Unlike the United States, Israel is small country with a highly concentrated population. A strike with just one or two weapons could destroy Israel. …

Carrying out a multiday or even multiweek air campaign with Israel's available force is too likely to be insufficient and too likely to fail. Israel's most effective option for taking out Iran's nuclear activities is itself nuclear. Israel could strike Iran from submarines if it genuinely intended to stop Iran's program.” – George Friedman, STRATFOR, 02-04-10 

…“For every dollar in debt that Americans have paid off since they started cleansing their balance sheets in mid-2008, the U.S. government has borrowed more than $7.” – MarketWatch, 02-08-10

Maybe.

Did you hear about the dyslexic, agnostic, insomniac? 

Lays awake all night wondering if there really is a dog.

The SEC on Friday January 29, 2010 created new rules for money market funds.  

Since all of the money you think of as cash, that is not parked in your wallet or on deposit at your local bank is invested in a money market fund, you need to be on to this.

The facts are here.

The more cynical, shrill and possibly realistic assessment provided by R.E. McMaster follows.  The McMaster quote links to a GLG analysis of the rule having to do with "Breaking the Buck".

 Thanks to the SEC, US money market funds can now suspend redemptions if they so please. Good luck to investors who have their hard earned funds in money market accounts when the next financial meltdown hits. Excuse me, but whose money is it? 

And yes, my observant friend, the sky blue font at the top is suggestive of my thoughts on this item.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010 the SEC offered the following,

"Companies must consider the effects of global warming and efforts to curb climate change when disclosing business risks to investors."  Bloomberg 01/27/2010

At the risk of becoming redundant.

The Inconvenient Truth?

Overpopulation 

“The ‘inconvenient truth’ overhanging the UN's Copenhagen conference is not that the climate is warming or cooling, but that humans are overpopulating the world.

A planetary law, such as China's one-child policy, is the only way to reverse the disastrous global birthrate currently, which is one million births every four days.

The world's other species, vegetation, resources, oceans, arable land, water supplies and atmosphere are being destroyed and pushed out of existence as a result of humanity's soaring reproduction rate.

Ironically, China, despite its dirty coal plants, is the world's leader in terms of fashioning policy to combat environmental degradation, thanks to its one-child-only edict.

“The intelligence behind this is the following:

“ -If only one child per female was born as of now, the world's population would drop from its current 6.5 billion to 5.5 billion by 2050, according to a study done for scientific academy Vienna Institute of Demography.

“By 2075, there would be 3.43 billion humans on the planet. This would have immediate positive effects on the world's forests, other species, the oceans, atmospheric quality and living standards.

“Doing nothing, by contrast, will result in an unsustainable population of nine billion by 2050. Humans are the only rational animals but have yet to prove it. Medical and other scientific advances have benefited by delivering lower infant mortality rates as well as longevity. Both are welcome, but humankind has not yet recalibrated its behavior to account for the fact that the world can only accommodate so many people, especially if billions get indoor plumbing and cars.

“The fix is simple. It's dramatic. And yet the world's leaders don't even have this on their agenda in Copenhagen. Instead there will be photo ops, posturing, optics, blah-blah-blah about climate science and climate fraud, announcements of giant wind farms, then cap-and-trade subsidies.

“None will work unless a China one-child policy is imposed. Unfortunately, there are powerful opponents. Leaders of the world's big fundamentalist religions preach in favor of procreation and fiercely oppose birth control. And most political leaders in emerging economies perpetuate a disastrous Catch-22: Many children (i. e. sons) stave off hardship in the absence of a social safety net or economic development, which, in turn, prevents protections or development.

“China has proven that birth restriction is smart policy. Its middle class grows, all its citizens have housing, health care, education and food, and the one out of five human beings who live there are not overpopulating the planet.

“For those who balk at the notion that governments should control family sizes, just wait until the growing human population turns twice as much pastureland into desert as is now the case, or when the Amazon is gone, the elephants disappear for good and wars erupt over water, scarce resources and spatial needs.

“The point is that Copenhagen's talking points are beside the point. The only fix is if all countries drastically reduce their populations, clean up their messes and impose mandatory conservation measures.”

Diane Francis (Mother of Two) www.FinancialPost.com, 12-08-09 

R.E. McMaster responds

I saw this coming a mile away on the heels of this global warming and carbon footprint farce being held in Copenhagen.

This is the epitome of government as god.

Back to pagan child sacrifice.

Molek would be pleased.

And euthanasia for the old?

At what age? 72, 75, 78, 80, 82?

“Die with dignity and noble sacrifice for the planet and mankind” would be the rallying cry.

…Sadly, except for committed Christians/Catholics, the effeminate wimpy establishment religious crowd will whine and simply roll over on this one, too.

But you know who this really offends, who this is a direct war against?

The Muslims, who comprise the fastest growing population in the world with the highest birth rates.

…This one-child-per-family idea, if it becomes global public policy, will guarantee a Islamic jihad against the Copenhagen government coalition, and that means a global jihad, Islam vs. everyone else.

…Come to think of it, isn’t that pretty close to what we have already?

…There are at core only two parts of the economic equation: land and labor.

With stifling omnipresent government regulations and people nearly all herded into cities (historically slave centers), coupled with comprehensive high tech monitoring and a amoral technologically armed military and disarmed population, control of people/labor today is a given.

This is already a “Prison Planet”. (Slaves in the Old South and under Pharaoh in Egypt were only taxed 10%-20%.)
People live with the illusion of freedom, like a gold fish does swimming around a bowl with the Powers That Be watching.

So, the “Climategate” scam is the next piece of the great land grab heist by governments to control it all, both pieces of the economic equation, both land and labor.

Then, the governing elite, these human gods, can begin to whittle away at the “dandruff on the scalp of Mother Earth”, “we the people”, in a “Just Say No” to children policy.

This is the religion of the Gaia, Mother Earth, environmentalists’ crowd. Government is, after all, always the enactment of someone’s religious ideas into laws that specify the rules of human action/interaction – economics.

…China was the camel’s nose under the tent. China as the next great world empire, with its one-child-per-family policy, will increasingly dictate global policy.

...Why isn’t militant Islam waging a jihad against China?

…If Copenhagen was consistent to its earth-saving beliefs, it would implement this population control measure to solve the so-called climate crisis; it would also declare Islam to be the primary enemy of “Mother Earth”.

…It all comes down to which philosophical position one holds as ultimate. Either “The earth was made for man” (with good stewardship a priority), or “Man was made for the earth”, …either a primary supernatural or a natural perspective respectively, one or the other, no middle ground.

Man either effectively worships the Creator or the creation. The latter is clearly the global establishment's position.

…Mankind being mankind, human nature being unchanged, history being history, this comprehensive growing global upheaval has the risk of ending in plague (probably human engineered) and a horrific global population reducing war, the “Mother Of All Wars”. …

How does Israel, with fewer people than the state of New Jersey, no natural resources, and hostile nations all around, produce more tech companies listed on the Nasdaq than all of Europe, Japan, South Korea, India and China combined?

Click here   Click here

The MIT Real Estate Center says that commercial property prices have dropped almost 42% over the past 2 years.

As a result of that drop, about  55% of the $1.4 trillion commercial mortgages that will mature in the next five years are underwater.

The delinquency rate for commercial mortgages climbed to 5% in October.

A year ago the delinquency rate was just 0.77%.

About half of all commercial mortgages sit on the balance sheets of smaller banks.

So the massive number of bank failures this year is significantly attributable to losses from commercial real estate.

Late last month, CIT Group, one of the largest commercial real estate finance companies in the world filed for bankruptcy.”

John Carney, www.BusinessInsider.com, 11-16-09